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NFLBIG MIKE’S DESK

NFL betting analysis. Page 12.

Every piece the desk has published on the NFL: what moved, what it means for the number, and the read.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

Tyler Shough's Late-Game Heroics Are Real, and Fragile

Breaking · 6:35 AM ET · Sep 22

The reporting out of New Orleans has the second-year quarterback at his best with the game on the line. History says the clutch label almost never survives a full season untouched.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

Aaron Donald Is Back, and the Rams Just Got Harder to Price

Breaking · 4:35 AM ET · Sep 22

Donald played his first game since the end of the 2023 season and L.A. rolled a depleted Giants team 28-6. One night is not a verdict, but a healthy Donald changes every Rams defensive projection from here.

Breaking · 12:35 AM ET · Sep 22

Indianapolis Colts Injury News: Alec Pierce Out Weeks With Heel Injury

Pierce will try to rehab the heel instead of operating on it, with midseason as the target, and the reporting has Slayton joining for depth. Indy just lost its field-stretcher.

Breaking · 10:35 PM ET · Sep 21

New York Giants Injury News: Jaxson Dart's Knee Turned a 9-Point Game Into a Blowout Number

Dart took a hard hit to the left knee in the first quarter and the Rams went from -8.5 to -18.5 while the total fell nine points, all with Puka Nacua in street clothes.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

Arizona Cardinals Injury News: Losing Will Johnson Changes Who Gets Targeted

Breaking · 8:35 PM ET · Sep 21

A neck injury against Seattle could cost Arizona its starting corner for the rest of the regular season, and the first place a subtraction like that shows up is opposing receiver props, not the spread.

Breaking · 6:35 PM ET · Sep 21

Michael Penix Jr. Gets Lambeau on A Short Week

Atlanta made it official Monday. Penix draws a short week, a road primetime slot and Lambeau Field for his season debut, and the Falcons picked a hard place to start him.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

NFL Tight End Injuries Don't Trend. They Should.

Big Mike's Take · 6:00 PM ET · Sep 21

Three tight ends came off two rosters in a single afternoon: two Chargers headed to IR and Dallas Goedert to an MCL sprain. Nobody built a segment around it, and that is the whole problem.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

What I'm Eyeing: NFL Best Bets Today, With One Number Doing All the Talking

What I'm Eyeing · 5:00 PM ET · Sep 21

Darnell Mooney over 1.5 receptions is the only spot on my card with a real price behind it, +111 against my fair -107. Everything else is a Rio field report and a Thursday quarterback debut waiting on practice.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

Kyler Murray Clears Protocol: Minnesota Vikings Injury News That Actually Touches a Number

Breaking · 4:35 PM ET · Sep 21

O'Connell confirmed it Monday, which means the backup-quarterback discount comes off the Vikings before kickoff in Tampa. The tell now is Wednesday's practice report, not the announcement.

Breaking · 12:35 PM ET · Sep 21

Rex Ryan Calls the Philadelphia Eagles Run Game 'Atrocious' After a Week 2 Win

A team that rode Saquon Barkley's 2,005-yard season to a Super Bowl now has a former head coach shouting about its ground game on morning TV, and the win over Tennessee did not quiet him.

Breaking · 10:35 AM ET · Sep 21

Chicago Bears Injury News: Caleb Williams Hurt Against the Vikings

No diagnosis, no timetable, and the NFC's Week 2 wreckage doesn't stop in Chicago: Jayden Daniels went down too, and three teams now have a real claim on the conference.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

Shane Steichen Defends His OT Playcalling, and I Don't Hate the Answer

Breaking · 6:35 AM ET · Sep 21

Steichen says he'd have gone for it on fourth-and-8 if Kansas City showed the right coverage. They didn't, and Kenneth Walker III's 178 all-purpose yards made the alternative expensive.

Breaking · 4:35 AM ET · Sep 21

Kenneth Walker III Has Changed the Shape of the Chiefs Offense

178 all-purpose yards in a 33-30 overtime win over Indianapolis, the second straight week Kansas City's offseason back has been the reason the offense looks different.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

Seahawks Injury News: Darnold Ahead of Schedule, Lock 2-0

Breaking · 2:35 AM ET · Sep 21

Mike Macdonald did not rule out Sam Darnold playing next Sunday, which is the rare quarterback return the market may barely blink at. Drew Lock is 2-0 and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the reason why.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

Philadelphia Eagles Titans Heat: 157 Degrees Melted Cleats in Nashville

Breaking · 10:35 PM ET · Sep 20

Nick Sirianni needed an IV and players' cleats were coming apart on a 157-degree field surface while Philadelphia and Tennessee played a one-score game to the finish.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

DeMeco Ryans Calls Out His Playmakers After the Texans' 0-2 Start

Breaking · 8:35 PM ET · Sep 20

Ryans skipped the scheme talk and went straight at his roster: if you call yourselves playmakers, where are the plays? That question lands hardest on the guys he handpicked.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

What I'm Eyeing: NFL Best Bets Today Come With a Cart Count

What I'm Eyeing · 5:00 PM ET · Sep 20

Four carts before the late window, a 9-3 Bears slog in the books, and exactly one number on my sheet worth more than a rounding error. Here is the radar, not the card.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

The Best NFL Players Without a Super Bowl Ring Start With Marino

Breaking · 6:35 AM ET · Sep 20

Dan Marino threw for 5,084 yards in his second season and never got back to a Super Bowl after his first one. The list of ringless greats is a monument to bad timing.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

Week 3 Just Made the College Football Playoff Top 12 a Lot Harder to Write

Breaking · 2:35 AM ET · Sep 20

Two results did the damage: Clemson climbed out of a double-digit hole against North Carolina, and Kentucky sent Texas A&M home with a loss and a group chat to answer for.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

Dabo Swinney Won't Forget This One: Clemson's Comeback Over UNC

Breaking · 10:35 PM ET · Sep 19

Swinney's teams have always been built on late-game belief, and a double-digit hole against North Carolina gave him the exact stage he needed to remind everyone of it.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

The NFL Just Rewrote the Videoboard Rules in the Middle of a Kick

Breaking · 8:35 PM ET · Sep 19

A viral post from a former analytics coach put stadium operations under a microscope, and the league answered by limiting what can flash behind the uprights on field goals and extra points.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

Vanderbilt's Own Music City Miracle: A Fumble With One Second Left Sinks NC State

Breaking · 6:35 PM ET · Sep 19

The ball came loose with :01 on the clock and the Commodores came up with it, 35-31. Nashville already has a Miracle on the books, and this program is past the point of being anybody's cute story.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

NFL Best Bets Today: What I'm Eyeing Before Week 2 Sunday

What I'm Eyeing · 5:00 PM ET · Sep 19

Puka Nacua missed a second straight practice and is questionable for Monday night, Pittman Jr. is out in Foxborough, and the Jets lost a first-round rookie to IR. None of it has cleared my number yet.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

Jeremiah Smith Breaks the Ohio State Receiving Record on a Quiet 85-Yard Afternoon

Breaking · 4:35 PM ET · Sep 19

Five catches against Kent State, a mark that had stood for more than two decades, and a junior who now owns it at 2,958 yards with a full season still in front of him.

NFL · BIG MIKE’S DESK

San Francisco 49ers Injury News: Stribling Loses 10 Weeks to Ankle Surgery

Breaking · 12:35 PM ET · Sep 19

Ankle surgery costs a young 49ers receiver most of the fall, Washington adds a veteran interior lineman, and the league quietly closes a door on two players who went back to school.

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