CFB futures: National Championship winner odds & analysis.
The full National Championship field with the desk’s math on it: best price per team across 5 books, the market’s hold, and the no-vig fair number every price has to beat.
Big Mike’s read on the board
the market makes Georgia Bulldogs the National Championship favorite at +250, about 22% fair once you strip the 35% the books are holding on this field. the number i keep looking at is Ole Miss Rebels: +5000 at DK against a fair +4939. that gap is real. futures money is dead money for months, so the price has to earn it.
| Team | Best price | Implied | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| steaming | +250 MGM | 29.3% | 21.7% | — |
| drifting | +400 FD | 20.9% | 15.4% | — |
| steaming | +700 MGM | 13.5% | 10.0% | — |
| drifting | +950 FD | 10.5% | 7.8% | — |
| steaming | +1050 DK | 9.6% | 7.1% | — |
| drifting | +1050 DK | 9.3% | 6.9% | — |
| drifting | +2200 DK | 5.2% | 3.8% | — |
| steaming | +2800 MGM | 3.7% | 2.7% | — |
| drifting | +4000 FD | 2.8% | 2.1% | — |
| drifting | +4500 BOL | 2.7% | 2.0% | — |
| drifting | +5000 DK | 2.7% | 2.0% | +1.2% |
| steaming | +7500 BR | 1.7% | 1.2% | — |
| steaming | +6500 DK | 1.6% | 1.2% | — |
| steaming | +7000 FD | 1.6% | 1.2% | — |
| drifting | +8000 FD | 1.3% | 1.0% | — |
| drifting | +10000 FD | 1.0% | 0.8% | — |
| drifting | +12000 DK | 1.0% | 0.7% | — |
| drifting | +125000 FD | 1.0% | 0.7% | +816.7% |
| steaming | +20000 BR | 1.0% | 0.7% | +43.9% |
| steaming | +13000 DK | 0.9% | 0.7% | — |
Full field (118 more)
| Team | Best price | Implied | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| drifting | +15000 MGM | 0.9% | 0.7% | — |
| drifting | +100000 BR | 0.9% | 0.6% | +550.6% |
| drifting | +15000 DK | 0.7% | 0.5% | — |
| drifting | +20000 MGM | 0.6% | 0.4% | — |
| drifting | +40000 BR | 0.5% | 0.4% | +54.7% |
| drifting | +125000 FD | 0.4% | 0.3% | +280.5% |
| drifting | +50000 MGM | 0.3% | 0.2% | +17.5% |
| drifting | +50000 MGM | 0.3% | 0.2% | +14.6% |
| drifting | +100000 DK | 0.3% | 0.2% | +118.9% |
| drifting | +125000 FD | 0.3% | 0.2% | +148.1% |
| drifting | +50000 DK | 0.3% | 0.2% | — |
| drifting | +200000 MGM | 0.2% | 0.2% | +248.2% |
| drifting | +125000 FD | 0.2% | 0.2% | +93.0% |
| drifting | +125000 FD | 0.2% | 0.2% | +90.3% |
| drifting | +125000 FD | 0.2% | 0.1% | +80.0% |
| drifting | +250000 DK | 0.2% | 0.1% | +227.2% |
| drifting | +100000 DK | 0.2% | 0.1% | +23.3% |
| steaming | +100000 BR | 0.2% | 0.1% | +19.8% |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.2% | 0.1% | +130.5% |
| drifting | +150000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.1% | +45.1% |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +81.4% |
| drifting | +250000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +123.1% |
| steaming | +150000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +21.3% |
| drifting | +125000 FD | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +42.0% |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +113.0% |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +105.6% |
| drifting | +150000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| drifting | +150000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| drifting | +150000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| drifting | +150000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +27.3% |
| drifting | +250000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +55.4% |
| drifting | +200000 BR | 0.1% | 0.1% | +23.3% |
| drifting | +150000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +22.1% |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +22.1% |
| drifting | +250000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +48.0% |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +17.4% |
| steaming | +150000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| drifting | +150000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| steaming | +150000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +73.9% |
| steaming | +400000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +125.7% |
| drifting | +150000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +12.5% |
| drifting | +500000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +177.4% |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +9.8% |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +9.8% |
| drifting | +500000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +171.3% |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +7.6% |
| drifting | +200000 BR | 0.1% | 0.1% | +3.6% |
| steaming | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +3.6% |
| +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +3.6% | |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +3.6% |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +3.6% |
| +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +3.6% | |
| +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +3.6% | |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +55.4% |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +55.4% |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +55.4% |
| drifting | +200000 MGM | 0.1% | 0.1% | +2.6% |
| drifting | +350000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +78.2% |
| drifting | +350000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +77.1% |
| steaming | +400000 DK | 0.1% | 0.1% | +101.0% |
| drifting | +250000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +24.9% |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +48.0% |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +146.6% | |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +146.6% | |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +146.6% | |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +146.6% | |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +146.6% | |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +146.6% | |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +146.6% | |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +146.6% | |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +146.6% | |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +146.6% | |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | — |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +46.5% |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +46.1% |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +46.1% |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +46.1% |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +46.1% |
| drifting | +350000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +67.4% |
| steaming | +400000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +90.4% |
| drifting | +250000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +18.4% |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +42.1% |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +42.1% |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +42.1% |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +131.2% | |
| +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +36.9% | |
| +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +36.9% | |
| +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +36.9% | |
| drifting | +400000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +76.4% |
| drifting | +250000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +9.5% |
| drifting | +500000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +115.8% |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +115.8% | |
| drifting | +200000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | — |
| drifting | +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +27.7% |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +111.4% | |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +108.1% | |
| +500000 BOL | 0.1% | 0.0% | +108.1% | |
| +300000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +24.3% | |
| steaming | +250000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +1.8% |
| +500000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +103.5% | |
| +500000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +103.5% | |
| +500000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +103.5% | |
| +500000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +103.5% | |
| +500000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +103.5% | |
| +500000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +103.5% | |
| +500000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +103.5% | |
| +500000 DK | 0.1% | 0.0% | +103.5% | |
| +500000 DK | 0.0% | 0.0% | +85.0% | |
| +500000 DK | 0.0% | 0.0% | +85.0% | |
| +300000 DK | 0.0% | 0.0% | +9.2% | |
| +300000 DK | 0.0% | 0.0% | +8.6% | |
| drifting | +350000 DK | 0.0% | 0.0% | +24.3% |
| +500000 BOL | 0.0% | 0.0% | +69.6% |
How to read this board
Every futures price is a probability in disguise, and the books price the whole field so those probabilities add up to far more than 100%. That overage is the hold, and on championship futures it runs several times fatter than a game line. The fair column strips it out: each team’s honest share of the field according to the market itself.
When a futures bet is actually worth it
Two conditions, both required: the best available price beats the fair number (the Edge column), and you’re comfortable parking the money until the confetti falls. A futures ticket that merely matches fair value is a worse bet than the same opinion expressed on game lines week by week. The hold and the dead months have to be paid for by a genuinely mispriced number.
Common questions
How do CFB futures odds work?
A futures price is a probability wearing a costume: +500 implies a 16.7% chance. Books price every team in the field, and the implied probabilities sum to well over 100%. The excess is the hold, currently 35% on this market. Fair value is each team's share once that hold is stripped out.
What's the smartest way to bet National Championship winner futures?
Shop the number across books (the best price on the same team routinely differs by 20% or more), compare it to the no-vig fair line on this page, and only lock money for months when the price genuinely beats fair. Line-shopping matters more on futures than on any other bet type.
How often does this board update?
Prices refresh twice daily from the major US sportsbooks, and the fair-value math recomputes on every refresh. The movers module tracks each team's best price against its previous number.
GET BIG MIKEWhen a National Championship number breaks fair value, it's on his board first.
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