Wednesday, and my CFB best bets today list is a blank page. That is not a tease, that is the honest status: nothing has cleared, and I would rather show you an empty column than dress up a guess in a jersey.

What I do have is a notebook. The top of the sport is loud right now. Texas sits 4-0 and, per the ratings people, is pulling the biggest average television audience in the country, which is what happens when a program wins and everybody tunes in to argue about it. The Longhorns' own athletic director spent the week apologizing for the vulgar sideline celebrations in the Tennessee win, calling them embarrassing. Meanwhile the playoff committee keeps kicking a 24-team model around the room without voting on anything. Big picture stuff. None of it tells me how Navy blocks at 6,600 feet.

CFB best bets today: what's actually on the radar

  1. Navy at Air Force, Saturday noon ET. Two offenses that treat the play clock like a mortgage payment, playing in Colorado Springs altitude. Low-event game scripts live here. What turns it into a play: confirmation that both teams come in healthy up front, because these games are won and lost by interior bodies, not skill talent.
  2. Penn State at Northwestern, Friday 8 PM ET. A road favorite on a Friday night in Evanston. Short-week, odd-slot games are where big programs go to play one ugly quarter. What turns it into a play: weather off the lake and a number that still treats this as a formality.
  3. Michigan at Minnesota, Saturday noon ET. The Wolverines caught a week of national shots, including one national outlet slotting them in its bottom tier of programs, and now they get a noon kick in Minneapolis. checked the almanac: this rivalry has been playing for the Little Brown Jug since a 6-6 tie in 1903, when Michigan simply left the water jug behind and Minnesota kept it. one hundred twenty three years later they are still arguing over a piece of pottery. back to business.
  4. Alabama at Mississippi State, Saturday noon ET. Starkville at noon is its own weather system. What turns it into a play: nothing, unless the market prices the environment as if it is nothing.
  5. Wyoming at North Dakota State, Saturday 3:30 PM ET. A Mountain West team walking into Fargo. That is a live spot on its face and the kind of game that gets handicapped lazily. I want a week of practice reports first.

The one I lean on most

Air Force hosting Navy. Not a play, a lean, and the lean is toward a grinding, clock-eating, low-possession afternoon. Two triple-option-rooted attacks at altitude do not generate many drives, and few drives means fewer chances for a blowout in either direction. I need my own number to settle before any of that becomes real.

Small edges over and over, no heroics. That is the whole business. Nothing cleared this morning, so nothing gets sold this morning, and the math says pass until it does not. Keep it fun, keep it 21-plus where it is legal, and keep it money you actually meant to spend.

What I'm watching next: the injury reports out of Annapolis and Colorado Springs, and whether Friday night in Evanston gets a real wind forecast.