The Liberty are still the Game 3 favorite at home on Friday, but the number moved toward Atlanta overnight, and that matters more than the postgame officiating spat that's generating the headlines.

First, the game that caused all this. Atlanta beat New York 101-98 in overtime on Wednesday behind Angel Reese's 23 points and a clutch Naz Hillmon layup with 20.8 seconds left, pushing the Dream to a 2-0 series lead. That's the actual driver of the market, not the controversy that followed it.

The controversy: Breanna Stewart said officials told the Liberty they didn't have a reset timeout to use late in overtime. Crew chief Fatou Cissoko-Stephens disputed that in a pool report, saying the remaining timeout was in fact communicated. Two sides, one story, no resolution. That's not a line-mover on its own. It's a trust problem heading into a building that's going to be loud and desperate on Friday, and it's worth watching whether the officiating crew calls a tighter or looser game as a result. Refs who just got publicly contradicted tend to manage the whistle differently. That's a tell worth tracking in the first few minutes.

Here's what the board actually did. New York's moneyline came in from -170 to -150, Atlanta drifted from +140 to +150 on the other side of the market. The spread barely moved, Dream backers now getting plus money at +3.5 where they were laying -105 before. The total climbed a full point, 172 up to 173, with the under line following it up too. None of that is a dramatic swing. It's a market remembering that Wednesday's game needed extra time and 199 combined points to decide, and pricing a little more pace into the rematch.

The prediction market split, Liberty around 61-62 percent on Kalshi and Polymarket against Atlanta's 40-43, still shows real separation. New York remains the better team on paper, at home, with its back against the wall. But a 0-2 hole against a team playing downhill through Reese and Hillmon is exactly the spot where a slight line drift makes sense even before you get to who's upset about a timeout.

What I'm watching next: whether the moneyline keeps sliding toward Atlanta as tip approaches, and how the officiating crew manages fouls and reviews in the opening minutes after getting called out in public. That's the real tell, not the pool report itself.