Two New England starters came off the board for Sunday at Buffalo, and the number did what you would expect it to do: it climbed through a key number. The Patriots will be without cornerback Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christian Barmore when they visit the Bills at 1:00 pm ET, with the reporting citing a shoulder injury. That is the board-mover of the morning in the AFC East.
This is one of those New England Patriots injury news items where you do not need a model to know which way it goes. You need one to know how far.
What the New England Patriots injury news does to the number
Here is the board as of early afternoon.
| Market | Opened | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots spread | +5.5 -105 | +6.5 +100 (FanDuel) |
| Bills spread | -5.5 -105 | -7 +101 (LowVig) |
| Patriots moneyline | +141 | +285 (de-vigged) |
| Bills moneyline | -335 | -292 (de-vigged) |
| Total | 48.5 over, 50.5 under | 50.5 over (ESPN BET), 49.5 under (FanDuel) |
A point and a half of spread move, and critically it did not stop at 6. It went through 6 and parked on a full touchdown at the sharper shops. Seven is the second-biggest number on the NFL grid behind 3, and the money was willing to pay the toll to get there. That is a tell.
The total came with it, up roughly a point, with the cheapest over now sitting at 50.5 and the under still reachable at 49.5. Also logical. Take a team's best cover man out against Josh Allen and you are not projecting fewer points.
Why the Bills odds movement makes football sense
Gonzalez is the piece that lets New England play people in man and hide problems elsewhere. Without him, the coverage help has to come from somewhere, and that somewhere is usually the safety who was supposed to be eating up the middle of the field. Barmore is the other half of the squeeze: the interior push that makes a quarterback climb into trouble instead of stepping up into a clean pocket. Allen does not need the invitation.
So you are not just subtracting two names. You are subtracting the two jobs that most directly complicate the thing Buffalo does best. The market priced it like that.
One note of honesty about those moneyline numbers. The open of Patriots +141 against Bills -335 does not square with itself, which tells me the early market was thin and stale rather than that New England were ever near a coin flip. The current de-vigged pair, +285 and -292, implies Buffalo in the 74 to 76 percent range, and the prediction venues agree at 75 and 76. When the de-vig and the exchanges land on the same number, the price is doing its job. There is no stray money sitting on that moneyline.
The honest caveat
A point and a half for a corner and a defensive tackle is a full, confident price. It may even be a generous one. The version of this spot I would actually keep eyeing is the dog at the full 7 rather than 6.5, because if there is buyback into Sunday morning the 7 disappears first and you never see it again. That is a lean, not a play. My own number is not cleaner than the market here, and when my number is not cleaner than the market, the math says pass.
checked the almanac: this series produces weather games that make totals look foolish. in december 2021 in orchard park the wind got so bad that new england won 14 to 10 with mac jones throwing three passes all night. buffalo in october is not buffalo in december, but the ghost of that game is why i never fully trust a 50.5 up there.
What I'm watching next
The Friday and Saturday designations, first. If another New England defender lands on the report, 7 becomes 7.5 and the total pushes toward 51. If the 7 holds into Sunday morning with no further bad news, the market has finished its reaction and the dog price is set. Second thing: whether the under keeps getting bought at 49.5 while the over sits at 50.5. That split is a real disagreement between books, and the side that caves first tells you who was right.
Bet what you can afford to lose, treat it as entertainment, 21+ where legal.