Five games on the October board and I do not have a single play on any of them. That is not a confession, that is the job. NBA best bets today live or die on information, and on the first preseason Monday of the year the information is thinner than the error bars around it.

October basketball is the gap between what you think a rotation looks like and what a coach actually does with a clipboard in a half-empty building. Minutes get handed out on feel. Starters get a quarter and a half and a towel. That is not a reason to look away, it is a reason to look closer at the few spots where somebody has told us something real.

Where NBA best bets today actually come from in October

  1. Knicks at 76ers, 7 ET. Word came down this afternoon that LeBron James will not take the court for Philadelphia's first preseason game. That is the hardest piece of information on the entire slate, and it is the only one that touches a lineup card. What would turn it into a play: a confirmed inactive list from both benches before tip, plus a total that still looks priced for both full starting groups. Information first, number second, in that order every time.
  1. Karl-Anthony Towns and the extension that is not coming. Towns said the chances "don't look good" for a new deal before the regular season. I am not pretending that moves a jump shot in a preseason game in Philadelphia. I am watching it because contract limbo has a way of showing up in load-management language by February. What would make it a spot: a team starting to talk about managing his minutes.
  1. Timberwolves at Bucks, 8 ET. The game I know the least about, which is exactly why it is on the list. I do not have rotation plans for either bench in front of me yet. In preseason the team that quietly plays its starters deep into the third wins that stretch by double digits and nobody saw it coming. A credible minutes report turns this one live.
  1. Lakers at Kings, 10 ET. Late window, short flight, first look. The only question I care about is who actually traveled, and I do not have that answer yet. If a West Coast travel list lands before tip and the number has not caught up to it, that is a conversation.
  1. Not a spot, a note. Jason Kidd is reportedly in talks to join ESPN's studio coverage. I have nothing past "in talks," so I am not building anything on it. But a sideline name heading for a desk chair is always worth a dog-ear in the notebook.

The one I lean on

Knicks at 76ers. Not because I love a side, because it is the only game on this board where somebody handed me a fact. Everything else is me guessing at a coach's mood. That is a lean, not a play, and the distinction is the whole column.

So: nothing cleared my number this morning. Not one of the five. Preseason is where bad habits get built, small edges over and over is the picture I want, and October is usually the month you earn by sitting still. This is entertainment with variance, 21+ where it is legal, and if it ever stops being fun, 1-800-GAMBLER.

What I am watching next: the inactive lists in Philadelphia before 7 ET. That is the first real piece of information this league hands us all season.

You know where to find me. Just ask Big Mike.