Boston lost Game 1 by nine, and may have lost more than that. Roman Anthony exited early with an injury to the same hand that sidelined him for nearly four months this season, and the word this morning is that his availability for Game 2 is unclear. That is the most consequential item on the MLB board today, and it lands on a club that is now one loss from the winter. As for MLB best bets today: I have nothing on my card, and I will tell you exactly why.
Is Roman Anthony playing in Game 2 against the Yankees?
Nobody knows yet, and anybody who tells you otherwise is guessing loudly. What I do know is the shape of it. Same hand, previous four-month absence, an early exit in a game the Red Sox were already losing badly. Best-of-three, no cushion, 8:00 PM ET in the Bronx.
Game 1 was not close and was not fluky. Cam Schlittler turned in another playoff gem against Boston, and Ben Rice ended the suspense with a late grand slam on the way to six RBIs in a 9-0 New York win. A 9-0 counts the same in the standings as a 2-1. It does not count the same in a clubhouse at midnight.
Here is where I will push back on my own instinct, though. Blowouts are the loudest data point in a short series and one of the least predictive. One night of a starter being untouchable tells me less than the lineup card does. The lineup card is the tell. If Anthony's name is on it, Boston is a different team than the one the market will assume after watching a shutout.
What happened in the MLB wild card openers?
Three home favorites held, one road club flipped the script, and every Game 2 today is either an elimination game or a clincher.
| Game 1 result | Score | Game 2 today (ET) |
|---|---|---|
| Braves over Phillies | 5-3 | Phillies at Braves, 2:00 PM |
| White Sox over Astros | 6-3 | White Sox at Astros, 5:00 PM |
| Yankees over Red Sox | 9-0 | Red Sox at Yankees, 8:00 PM |
| Padres over Cubs | 8-0 | Cubs at Padres, 10:00 PM |
San Diego was emphatic. Fernando Tatis Jr. led off the bottom of the first with a homer and Michael King was brilliant, and the Cubs got shut out 8-0. That is the second 8-0 or worse shutout of the night, which is a strange thing to type about a postseason opener round.
Chicago's other club got the best story. The White Sox beat Houston 6-3 for their first playoff win since 2021, with a papal blessing in the pregame news cycle, because Pope Leo XIV is a South Sider and apparently unbothered about declaring it. Houston is the one home favorite staring at elimination at 5:00 PM.
And in Atlanta, Don Mattingly went to his best arm early and it cost him. Jhoan Duran came in during the seventh, and Austin Riley took him out of the park for three in the eighth to turn a Phillies lead into a 5-3 Braves win. I have no problem with the process. Your best reliever in the highest-leverage inning is correct baseball. Right side, wrong night.
The NLDS notes worth filing
The Dodgers say the long layoff has Shohei Ohtani in better shape for their NLDS opener, which is the kind of quiet item that matters more in two weeks than it does today. Milwaukee is being careful with Joey Ortiz, who believes he is ready for the NLDS opener but had an MRI on his right knee last weekend. Two clubs with byes, two health questions trending in opposite directions.
Also, Liam Hendriks retired at 37. Three-time All-Star, and he came back to a big league mound after non-Hodgkin lymphoma. That is a career worth a minute of your morning.
MLB best bets today: what cleared my number
Nothing. Not a single side or total on four elimination-adjacent games cleared my number this morning, and I am not going to invent one to fill the column.
The mechanism is simple. Game 2 of a best-of-three is the least projectable game in baseball. Bullpens are unrecognizable because managers will use anyone who can stand, as Mattingly demonstrated in the seventh. Lineup cards are hostage to news I do not have yet, most obviously in Boston. My models want starters and usage patterns, and on a day like this both are fog. Small edges over and over is the job. Guessing into fog is not.
If the Anthony news lands one way or the other, I will have a real number on the 8:00 PM game and you know where to find me. Until then, the math says pass, and passing is free. Keep it entertainment, keep it 21 and up where legal, and keep the size where it belongs, which is your call and not mine.
What I'm watching: Boston's lineup card before 8:00 PM ET. Everything I think about that game moves with it.