The single most consequential thing that happened Sunday: the No. 1 seed lost Game 1 at home, and in a best-of-three first round that is the whole ballgame. Breanna Stewart went for 34 points and 12 rebounds, the Liberty stole the opener from Minnesota, and the Lynx now have to win twice with the middle game in Brooklyn. That is the WNBA betting news today in one sentence, and it reshapes the title picture more than any other result on the slate.
Let me be plain about the format, because it is what makes this so heavy. First round is three games. Lose the opener at home and you are not down a game, you are down a series. Minnesota spent six months earning the right to host, and one Sunday afternoon of Stewart cooking undid it.
checked the almanac: these two met in the 2024 Finals and New York took it in five, Game 5 in overtime. Stewart in a big game against the Lynx is not a new plot. Back to business.
What the Lynx Game 1 loss means for the WNBA title race
Qualitatively, and I am not putting a price on it because I do not have one in front of me worth trusting: the futures market's tidiest assumption just got messy. Everything downstream of Minnesota was built on the top seed surviving a round it was not supposed to sweat. Now the Lynx have to go win in New York against a team that just shot its way into their building and took the thing. Not a longshot conversation anymore. A live one.
The counterweight is Las Vegas. A'ja Wilson put up 35 points and 15 rebounds on 75 percent shooting in the opener against Indiana, and the wire has that as the first 35-and-15 on 75 percent in any WNBA game ever played. Not playoff game. Any game. When the defending champion's best player is that efficient, the Fever need a different Game 2 entirely, and they get it at home Tuesday.
Sunday's other WNBA Game 1 results
Atlanta handled Washington 92-77 at State Farm Arena, with DeWanna Bonner setting the tone. Remember the timeline there: Bonner signed with the Dream on Aug. 27. A month and a day later she is the steadying veteran on a No. 4 seed that just took care of business against the 5. That is the kind of late-roster mechanic that never shows up in a season-long power rating and absolutely shows up in October.
And Golden State ran away from Dallas with franchise-record scoring and franchise-record threes. Fair warning on that one: franchise records come cheap when the franchise is new, and this one is. The real question for Game 2 in Dallas is whether that was a shooting night or a shot-quality night. Those are very different animals and only one of them repeats. That is the tell I am hunting Wednesday.
Is there a WNBA game today, Monday Sept. 28?
No. The league is dark Monday. Nothing cleared my number this morning for the simple reason that there is nothing to clear, and I am not going to invent a board on an off day to keep myself busy.
Here is the slate that matters, straight off the schedule:
| Game 2 | Date | Tip (ET) |
|---|---|---|
| Aces at Fever | Tue, Sep 29 | 6:40 |
| Lynx at Liberty | Tue, Sep 29 | 8:40 |
| Dream at Mystics | Wed, Sep 30 | 7:10 |
| Valkyries at Wings | Wed, Sep 30 | 9:00 |
Semifinals tip Oct. 4. The Finals open Oct. 17. Every one of these first-round series is now one result from being over.
What I'm watching next
Three things. Whether Minnesota's Game 2 shows a real adjustment on Stewart or just more hope. Whether Indiana can make Wilson work for anything at all at home. And whether Golden State's three-point volume in Dallas looks like a system or looks like a Sunday. Answer those and the rest of the round writes itself.
One housekeeping note, because I mean it: this is entertainment with variance attached, 21 and up where it is legal, and an off day is a fine day to bet nothing at all.