MLB betting analysis. Page 17.
Every piece the desk has published on the MLB: what moved, what it means for the number, and the read.
Three of my losses came by exactly one run, all three wins came by three or more, and the only pick the market drifted toward with me was the one that cleared easy. 3-3, minus 0.76u.
The ceremony ended with two first pitches from Brielle Saracini and Sean Maguire, a married couple whose fathers both died on Sept. 11, 2001. Then the 2001 Yankees stepped back into the dugout shadows.
Garrett Mitchell's slam was Milwaukee's first of the entire season, which tells you more about how this team scores than the 20 runs do. The Rays punched their ticket the same night.
A 1-1 game vanished in one swing: Caminero's two-run walk-off homer made it 3-1 Tampa Bay over Houston and put the first postseason ticket in the majors in the smallest-market pocket in the sport.
Valdez came out in the sixth on a routine grounder. By evening the Pirates had gone from a -138 open to +111 on our board while the total never left 9. One of those moves is about him. Maybe.
Byron Buxton has been off the field since Aug. 30, so the season-ending hip surgery confirms a price rather than sets one. Dansby Swanson's return is the one still ahead of the room.
He has been on the IL since Aug. 30 and now the right hip goes under the knife. The reflex was a shrug, and that reflex is the thing worth arguing about.
One prop is offered at +154 on a number my desk says should sit near +139, and it still isn't my lean. The Rangers at +116 in the desert is, and here's the reason.
Counsell says his shortstop could be back in the lineup inside a week. That reprices Cubs sides in late September, not this weekend, and early is exactly where money gets careless.
Philadelphia closed a 64 percent favorite and scored one run. I paid minus 184 for that privilege, then won the Yankees game at a worse price than the close. Two receipts, one lesson.
Seattle opened -174 for the late one in Sacramento and sits -147 while the Athletics side never budged off +145. I have the move without the mechanism yet.
Five RBIs in his first game back from Triple-A, a career high, and a Subway Series waiting at 7:06 Friday night. One swing does not settle a season, but it settles a mood.
An All-Star righty lands on the 15-day IL with right arm discomfort, and with the calendar where it is, the 15 days may be the whole rest of the season. Here's the part of the board it actually touches.
Martin Perez put up seven scoreless and Austin Riley's eighth-inning single was Atlanta's first lead of the entire series. Then Lane Thomas hurt an intercostal in the batting cage before first pitch.
Jhoan Duran had retired the side in order most of the summer's big spots. One swing from Houston's rookie right fielder flipped a rubber game and a three-hitter into a road series win.
The Yankees are asking -295 on a game my number has at -258, the Braves lost an outfielder to a batting cage, and the only market showing daylight is a Bryson Stott under at plus money.
An intercostal strain in the cage before first pitch costs Atlanta an outfielder for at least 15 days, and the lineup card against Philadelphia is where it actually shows up.
New York opened -426 against Colorado and the board now shows -270. Eight points of implied win probability walked out the door with a sprained thumb, and the over got cheaper too.
Boston closed a 68% favorite and lost 4-6 to the Angels. My board went 2-2 and still bled 1.06 units, because that is what happens when you win short and lose full.
A 15-day IL stint for the best hitter alive, and the replacement DH is a kid who was in Double-A this week. That reshapes every Dodgers run line until we know what's ailing.
Eligible later this week, but the rehab game at Double-A Portland is Friday. That gap between eligible and activated is where team totals get priced wrong, and it is not what moved tonight's Angels number.
Baltimore went from a pick to a +108 dog and the total slid from 9 to 8.5 after the lineup card landed. The runline barely budged, and that mismatch is the whole story.
One single-hit under is paying plus 155 against my fair 135. The Dodgers at -278 and Red Sox at -205 are both already past my number, and I'm not chasing either one.
A shoulder for the infielder who headlined the Mason Miller return, and a line drive off the face for the lefty they drafted in the first round. Two futures dented on the same day.
One pick, one run, one cashed ticket. The Dodgers held serve 3-2 at -300 while the number drifted five cents the other way behind me, and nothing else on Tuesday cleared the bar.
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