Point spreads: what the number really says
The spread isn't a prediction of the margin. It's the price that balances the market — and reading it that way changes everything.
A point spread handicaps the favorite to make both sides bettable: at -6.5, the favorite must win by 7 or more; the underdog covers by losing by 6 or fewer, or winning outright.
The number is a price, not a forecast
The spread settles where the market balances, which is related to — but not the same as — the most likely margin. When the public loves a team, the number gets shaded past the fair line, and the other side gets cheap. Sharp spread betting is mostly noticing when the balancing price and the honest price diverge.
Key numbers
Margins cluster on certain values, especially in football: 3 and 7 dominate NFL finals. The gap between -2.5 and -3.5 is enormous; the gap between -4.5 and -5.5 barely matters. Buying or selling a half point matters exactly as much as the number it crosses.
Reading movement
Lines move when money — particularly respected money — shows up. A spread that opens -6.5 and closes -4.5 is the market telling you where the sharp side was. Track your own bets against the close (the CLV guide covers why) and you'll know whether you're ahead of those moves or chasing them.
The vig still applies
Spreads are typically -110 each side, so everything in the de-vigging guide applies: you need 52.4% against the number to break even, and the fair price of a balanced spread is +100.
